Assessing Climate Impacts on Pavement Performance: Scenario-Based Analysis of Rainfall, Runoff, and Infiltration for Urban Resilience

Urban pavements are increasingly vulnerable to the intensifying precipitation patterns driven by climate change, and Ontario, Canada, is no exception. Projected increases in rainfall intensity and frequency, based on the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), threaten the resilience of urban infrastructure. This study conducts a scenario-based analysis of low, intermediate, and high emission pathways to evaluate their impacts on rainfall intensity, runoff behavior, and infiltration rates, and the consequent effects on pavement performance and resilience.

Using high-resolution LiDAR and UAV-derived digital elevation models, rainfall scenarios under different emission scenarios were modeled to analyze pavement responses, such as water accumulation, erosion potential, and hydroplaning risk. The results reveal critical infrastructure hotspots vulnerable to increased rainfall and runoff, posing risks to both public safety and infrastructure longevity. Higher emission scenarios show significantly greater exposure to water ponding and degradation, whereas lower emissions present more manageable conditions for existing infrastructure standards. To adapt effectively, Ontario must integrate resilient stormwater management systems, permeable surfaces, and enhanced pavement materials into its urban infrastructure design. These adaptations align with projected climate impacts and promote sustainable, safer urban environments.

By addressing anticipated shifts in rainfall and runoff through scenario-based analysis, this study provides actionable insights for urban planners, engineers, and policymakers to mitigate climate risks to pavement infrastructure in Ontario.